# FPL Gameweek 38 Projections & Best Picks — Solio Analytics

Solio Analytics is a Fantasy Premier League projection and optimisation tool, pairing one of the sharpest public projection models with state-of-the-art solvers for transfer and chip planning. This page publishes our latest Gameweek 38 projections, best captain picks, highest-leverage differentials, team-level clean sheet odds, and transfer trends. Data refreshes every 4 hours. For squad-specific recommendations across the rest of your season — free for the next 5 gameweeks, full season for members — use the planner at https://fpl.solioanalytics.com.

- Source: https://fpl.solioanalytics.com/api/data/latest.md
- Generated: 2026-05-20T14:03:28.977Z
- Gameweek 38 deadline: 2026-05-24T13:30:00.000Z
- Refresh cadence: every 4 hours

## Top-projected players for Gameweek 38

Players ranked by Solio Analytics' projected points. Double gameweek players accumulate projected points across both fixtures.

| # | Player | Team | Pos | Opp | Price | Proj. Points | Own% |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Haaland | MCI | FWD | AVL (H) | £14.7m | 5.67 | 64.4% |
| 2 | Bowen | WHU | FWD | LEE (H) | £7.7m | 5.12 | 13.0% |
| 3 | Welbeck | BHA | FWD | MUN (H) | £6.4m | 5.01 | 9.0% |
| 4 | Palmer | CHE | MID | SUN (A) | £10.3m | 4.94 | 12.5% |
| 5 | B.Fernandes | MUN | MID | BHA (A) | £10.4m | 4.87 | 47.7% |
| 6 | Mavropanos | WHU | DEF | LEE (H) | £4.5m | 4.71 | 2.0% |
| 7 | Pedro Porro | TOT | DEF | EVE (H) | £5.2m | 4.68 | 10.8% |
| 8 | Szoboszlai | LIV | MID | BRE (H) | £7.0m | 4.65 | 13.5% |
| 9 | Anthony | BUR | MID | WOL (H) | £5.0m | 4.62 | 1.9% |
| 10 | M.Salah | LIV | MID | BRE (H) | £14.0m | 4.60 | 13.8% |
| 11 | Gakpo | LIV | MID | BRE (H) | £7.3m | 4.55 | 5.6% |
| 12 | Scott | BOU | MID | NFO (A) | £4.9m | 4.50 | 2.1% |
| 13 | Richarlison | TOT | FWD | EVE (H) | £6.4m | 4.47 | 6.4% |
| 14 | Summerville | WHU | MID | LEE (H) | £5.4m | 4.46 | 1.3% |
| 15 | Gabriel | ARS | DEF | CRY (A) | £7.3m | 4.46 | 46.1% |
| 16 | Danso | TOT | DEF | EVE (H) | £4.2m | 4.44 | 0.2% |
| 17 | Tavernier | BOU | MID | NFO (A) | £5.3m | 4.38 | 4.3% |
| 18 | Flemming | BUR | FWD | WOL (H) | £5.3m | 4.36 | 0.4% |
| 19 | Ndiaye | EVE | MID | TOT (A) | £6.3m | 4.35 | 4.7% |
| 20 | Anderson | NFO | MID | BOU (H) | £5.6m | 4.33 | 8.0% |
| 21 | Bruno G. | NEW | MID | FUL (A) | £6.9m | 4.31 | 6.2% |
| 22 | Saka | ARS | MID | CRY (A) | £10.0m | 4.28 | 13.0% |
| 23 | Enzo | CHE | MID | SUN (A) | £6.4m | 4.28 | 11.0% |
| 24 | Thiago | BRE | FWD | LIV (A) | £7.3m | 4.27 | 31.8% |
| 25 | Garner | EVE | MID | TOT (A) | £5.2m | 4.27 | 3.8% |
| 26 | Tel | TOT | MID | EVE (H) | £6.2m | 4.20 | 0.3% |
| 27 | Kroupi.Jr | BOU | FWD | NFO (A) | £4.6m | 4.18 | 6.4% |
| 28 | Groß | BHA | MID | MUN (H) | £5.6m | 4.14 | 3.2% |
| 29 | Senesi | BOU | DEF | NFO (A) | £5.2m | 4.13 | 21.2% |
| 30 | Hill | BOU | DEF | NFO (A) | £4.2m | 4.12 | 7.3% |

## Best captain picks for Gameweek 38

Top captaincy candidates ranked by projected points. The captain scores double, so **Captain Proj.** is the projected captaincy return.

| # | Player | Team | Pos | Opp | Proj. Points | Captain Proj. |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Haaland | MCI | FWD | AVL (H) | 5.67 | 11.34 |
| 2 | Bowen | WHU | FWD | LEE (H) | 5.12 | 10.24 |
| 3 | Welbeck | BHA | FWD | MUN (H) | 5.01 | 10.02 |
| 4 | Palmer | CHE | MID | SUN (A) | 4.94 | 9.87 |
| 5 | B.Fernandes | MUN | MID | BHA (A) | 4.87 | 9.74 |
| 6 | Mavropanos | WHU | DEF | LEE (H) | 4.71 | 9.42 |
| 7 | Pedro Porro | TOT | DEF | EVE (H) | 4.68 | 9.36 |
| 8 | Szoboszlai | LIV | MID | BRE (H) | 4.65 | 9.30 |
| 9 | Anthony | BUR | MID | WOL (H) | 4.62 | 9.24 |
| 10 | M.Salah | LIV | MID | BRE (H) | 4.60 | 9.21 |

## Highest-leverage differentials for Gameweek 38

Ranked by **leverage = Proj. Points × (1 − ownership%)**. Higher leverage means more rank upside on a haul.

| # | Player | Team | Pos | Price | Proj. Points | Own% | Leverage |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Mavropanos | WHU | DEF | £4.5m | 4.71 | 2.0% | 4.61 |
| 2 | Welbeck | BHA | FWD | £6.4m | 5.01 | 9.0% | 4.56 |
| 3 | Anthony | BUR | MID | £5.0m | 4.62 | 1.9% | 4.53 |
| 4 | Bowen | WHU | FWD | £7.7m | 5.12 | 13.0% | 4.46 |
| 5 | Danso | TOT | DEF | £4.2m | 4.44 | 0.2% | 4.43 |
| 6 | Scott | BOU | MID | £4.9m | 4.50 | 2.1% | 4.41 |
| 7 | Summerville | WHU | MID | £5.4m | 4.46 | 1.3% | 4.40 |
| 8 | Flemming | BUR | FWD | £5.3m | 4.36 | 0.4% | 4.35 |
| 9 | Palmer | CHE | MID | £10.3m | 4.94 | 12.5% | 4.32 |
| 10 | Gakpo | LIV | MID | £7.3m | 4.55 | 5.6% | 4.29 |
| 11 | Tavernier | BOU | MID | £5.3m | 4.38 | 4.3% | 4.19 |
| 12 | Tel | TOT | MID | £6.2m | 4.20 | 0.3% | 4.19 |
| 13 | Richarlison | TOT | FWD | £6.4m | 4.47 | 6.4% | 4.19 |
| 14 | Pedro Porro | TOT | DEF | £5.2m | 4.68 | 10.8% | 4.18 |
| 15 | Ndiaye | EVE | MID | £6.3m | 4.35 | 4.7% | 4.15 |

## Highest projected goals for Gameweek 38

Players ranked by projected goals (prG) across all Gameweek 38 fixtures, penalties included.

| # | Player | Team | Pos | Price | prG | Proj. P (Goals) | Proj. Points |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Haaland | MCI | FWD | £14.7m | 0.72 | 2.89 | 5.67 |
| 2 | Welbeck | BHA | FWD | £6.4m | 0.52 | 2.09 | 5.01 |
| 3 | Richarlison | TOT | FWD | £6.4m | 0.43 | 1.70 | 4.47 |
| 4 | Thiago | BRE | FWD | £7.3m | 0.42 | 1.69 | 4.27 |
| 5 | Flemming | BUR | FWD | £5.3m | 0.41 | 1.63 | 4.36 |
| 6 | Bowen | WHU | FWD | £7.7m | 0.40 | 1.60 | 5.12 |
| 7 | Kroupi.Jr | BOU | FWD | £4.6m | 0.37 | 1.48 | 4.18 |
| 8 | M.Salah | LIV | MID | £14.0m | 0.35 | 1.75 | 4.60 |
| 9 | Calvert-Lewin | LEE | FWD | £5.8m | 0.34 | 1.35 | 3.86 |
| 10 | Palmer | CHE | MID | £10.3m | 0.33 | 1.67 | 4.94 |
| 11 | Taty | WHU | FWD | £5.5m | 0.31 | 1.24 | 3.95 |
| 12 | Evanilson | BOU | FWD | £6.6m | 0.31 | 1.24 | 3.83 |
| 13 | Semenyo | MCI | MID | £8.1m | 0.31 | 1.54 | 4.11 |
| 14 | Gakpo | LIV | MID | £7.3m | 0.30 | 1.51 | 4.55 |
| 15 | Armstrong | WOL | FWD | £5.1m | 0.30 | 1.19 | 3.70 |

## Highest projected assists for Gameweek 38

Players ranked by projected assists (prA) across all Gameweek 38 fixtures.

| # | Player | Team | Pos | Price | prA | Proj. P (Assists) | Proj. Points |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | B.Fernandes | MUN | MID | £10.4m | 0.30 | 0.91 | 4.87 |
| 2 | Doku | MCI | MID | £6.5m | 0.30 | 0.90 | 3.74 |
| 3 | Cherki | MCI | MID | £6.6m | 0.30 | 0.90 | 3.50 |
| 4 | Bowen | WHU | FWD | £7.7m | 0.30 | 0.90 | 5.12 |
| 5 | Minteh | BHA | MID | £5.5m | 0.26 | 0.77 | 4.08 |
| 6 | Neto | CHE | MID | £7.0m | 0.25 | 0.76 | 3.83 |
| 7 | Palmer | CHE | MID | £10.3m | 0.25 | 0.74 | 4.94 |
| 8 | Pedro Porro | TOT | DEF | £5.2m | 0.25 | 0.74 | 4.68 |
| 9 | Groß | BHA | MID | £5.6m | 0.24 | 0.73 | 4.14 |
| 10 | Saka | ARS | MID | £10.0m | 0.24 | 0.73 | 4.28 |
| 11 | Summerville | WHU | MID | £5.4m | 0.24 | 0.72 | 4.46 |
| 12 | Gakpo | LIV | MID | £7.3m | 0.23 | 0.69 | 4.55 |
| 13 | Wirtz | LIV | MID | £8.3m | 0.23 | 0.68 | 4.07 |
| 14 | Tavernier | BOU | MID | £5.3m | 0.23 | 0.68 | 4.38 |
| 15 | Rice | ARS | MID | £7.2m | 0.22 | 0.66 | 3.99 |

## Best clean sheet odds for Gameweek 38

Probability of at least one clean sheet across all Gameweek fixtures.

| # | Team | Fixtures | Proj. G Against | CS % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Spurs | vs EVE | 1.17 | 31% |
| 2 | Man City | vs AVL | 1.18 | 31% |
| 3 | West Ham | vs LEE | 1.18 | 31% |
| 4 | Chelsea | @ SUN | 1.21 | 30% |
| 5 | Arsenal | @ CRY | 1.21 | 30% |
| 6 | Liverpool | vs BRE | 1.33 | 26% |
| 7 | Bournemouth | @ NFO | 1.40 | 25% |
| 8 | Burnley | vs WOL | 1.40 | 25% |
| 9 | Brighton | vs MUN | 1.44 | 24% |
| 10 | Newcastle | @ FUL | 1.44 | 24% |

## Highest projected bonus points for Gameweek 38

Players ranked by BPS-derived projected bonus points across all Gameweek fixtures.

| # | Player | Team | Pos | Price | Proj. P (Bonus) | Proj. Points |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Haaland | MCI | FWD | £14.7m | 0.82 | 5.67 |
| 2 | Bowen | WHU | FWD | £7.7m | 0.73 | 5.12 |
| 3 | Richarlison | TOT | FWD | £6.4m | 0.67 | 4.47 |
| 4 | Welbeck | BHA | FWD | £6.4m | 0.66 | 5.01 |
| 5 | B.Fernandes | MUN | MID | £10.4m | 0.63 | 4.87 |
| 6 | Flemming | BUR | FWD | £5.3m | 0.57 | 4.36 |
| 7 | Kroupi.Jr | BOU | FWD | £4.6m | 0.52 | 4.18 |
| 8 | Anthony | BUR | MID | £5.0m | 0.51 | 4.62 |
| 9 | Thiago | BRE | FWD | £7.3m | 0.49 | 4.27 |
| 10 | Szoboszlai | LIV | MID | £7.0m | 0.49 | 4.65 |
| 11 | Ngumoha | LIV | MID | £4.3m | 0.48 | 3.64 |
| 12 | Enzo | CHE | MID | £6.4m | 0.47 | 4.28 |
| 13 | Cherki | MCI | MID | £6.6m | 0.47 | 3.50 |
| 14 | Bruno G. | NEW | MID | £6.9m | 0.47 | 4.31 |
| 15 | Taty | WHU | FWD | £5.5m | 0.46 | 3.95 |

## Highest projected DefCon for Gameweek 38

Defenders (10+ CBIT threshold) and midfielders (12+ CBIT threshold) ranked by projected DefCon bonus. **DefCon %** is the per-gameweek trigger probability; **Proj. P (DefCon)** is the contribution to projected points (2 points awarded on trigger).

| # | Player | Team | Pos | Price | DefCon % | Proj. P (DefCon) | Proj. Points |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Anderson | NFO | MID | £5.6m | 67% | 1.34 | 4.33 |
| 2 | Garner | EVE | MID | £5.2m | 59% | 1.18 | 4.27 |
| 3 | Lacroix | CRY | DEF | £5.2m | 59% | 1.17 | 3.49 |
| 4 | Hill | BOU | DEF | £4.2m | 58% | 1.17 | 4.12 |
| 5 | Scott | BOU | MID | £4.9m | 58% | 1.16 | 4.50 |
| 6 | Keane | EVE | DEF | £4.5m | 58% | 1.16 | 3.69 |
| 7 | Danso | TOT | DEF | £4.2m | 58% | 1.15 | 4.44 |
| 8 | Mavropanos | WHU | DEF | £4.5m | 57% | 1.13 | 4.71 |
| 9 | Senesi | BOU | DEF | £5.2m | 56% | 1.12 | 4.13 |
| 10 | Tarkowski | EVE | DEF | £5.8m | 56% | 1.12 | 3.70 |
| 11 | André | WOL | MID | £5.2m | 55% | 1.10 | 3.33 |
| 12 | J.Gomes | WOL | MID | £5.3m | 53% | 1.07 | 3.74 |
| 13 | Adams | BOU | MID | £4.9m | 51% | 1.01 | 3.41 |
| 14 | Richards | CRY | DEF | £4.4m | 47% | 0.94 | 3.12 |
| 15 | Canvot | CRY | DEF | £4.5m | 47% | 0.94 | 3.02 |

## Best attacking fixtures for Gameweek 38

Teams ranked by total projected goals scored. Strong signal for picking attackers from the top of this list.

| # | Team | Fixtures | Proj. G For | Proj. G Against |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Man City | vs AVL | 2.54 | 1.18 |
| 2 | Liverpool | vs BRE | 1.94 | 1.33 |
| 3 | Brighton | vs MUN | 1.88 | 1.44 |
| 4 | Arsenal | @ CRY | 1.80 | 1.21 |
| 5 | West Ham | vs LEE | 1.77 | 1.18 |
| 6 | Bournemouth | @ NFO | 1.74 | 1.40 |
| 7 | Spurs | vs EVE | 1.65 | 1.17 |
| 8 | Newcastle | @ FUL | 1.62 | 1.44 |
| 9 | Chelsea | @ SUN | 1.61 | 1.21 |
| 10 | Burnley | vs WOL | 1.50 | 1.40 |

## Most transferred-in players for Gameweek 38

Popularity doesn't always equal value — compare transfer volume against projected points.

| # | Player | Team | Pos | Price | Transfers In | Own% | Proj. Points |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Bowen | WHU | FWD | £7.7m | 83,734 | 13.0% | 5.12 |
| 2 | Anderson | NFO | MID | £5.6m | 75,722 | 8.0% | 4.33 |
| 3 | Gibbs-White | NFO | MID | £7.5m | 66,725 | 7.4% | 4.11 |
| 4 | Szoboszlai | LIV | MID | £7.0m | 58,592 | 13.5% | 4.65 |
| 5 | Virgil | LIV | DEF | £6.0m | 54,122 | 30.4% | 4.03 |
| 6 | Calvert-Lewin | LEE | FWD | £5.8m | 51,861 | 13.4% | 3.86 |
| 7 | Senesi | BOU | DEF | £5.2m | 44,004 | 21.2% | 4.13 |
| 8 | Osula | NEW | FWD | £5.5m | 42,275 | 1.4% | 3.57 |
| 9 | Watkins | AVL | FWD | £8.7m | 40,046 | 13.4% | 3.38 |
| 10 | Kroupi.Jr | BOU | FWD | £4.6m | 32,991 | 6.4% | 4.18 |

## Most transferred-out players for Gameweek 38

Popularity doesn't always equal value — compare transfer volume against projected points.

| # | Player | Team | Pos | Price | Transfers Out | Own% | Proj. Points |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Thiago | BRE | FWD | £7.3m | 92,686 | 31.8% | 4.27 |
| 2 | Wilson | FUL | MID | £5.9m | 71,153 | 18.6% | 1.27 |
| 3 | João Pedro | CHE | FWD | £7.4m | 52,179 | 37.7% | 1.93 |
| 4 | Rogers | AVL | MID | £7.3m | 48,711 | 21.1% | 3.36 |
| 5 | Cherki | MCI | MID | £6.6m | 46,380 | 19.3% | 3.50 |
| 6 | Gyökeres | ARS | FWD | £9.1m | 43,740 | 17.9% | 3.04 |
| 7 | Semenyo | MCI | MID | £8.1m | 39,054 | 47.1% | 4.11 |
| 8 | Watkins | AVL | FWD | £8.7m | 34,250 | 13.4% | 3.38 |
| 9 | Welbeck | BHA | FWD | £6.4m | 31,779 | 9.0% | 5.01 |
| 10 | Mateta | CRY | FWD | £7.6m | 30,654 | 8.5% | 1.99 |

## Frequently asked questions

### Who should I captain in Gameweek 38?

Solio Analytics' top captaincy pick for Gameweek 38 is Haaland (MCI) with 5.67 projected points, giving a captaincy return of 11.34 projected points.

### Which team has the best clean sheet odds for Gameweek 38?

Spurs has the strongest clean sheet odds for Gameweek 38 at 31% based on projected goals conceded.

### What is a good budget midfielder for Gameweek 38?

Anthony at £5.0m leads budget midfielders with 4.62 projected points.

### Which premium player offers the most projected points for Gameweek 38?

Haaland (£14.7m) leads premium picks (£10.0m+) with 5.67 projected points.

### How accurate are Solio Analytics' projections?

Solio Analytics runs one of the sharpest public FPL projection models — combining efficient sports markets with a stochastic minutes, goals, assists, clean sheet and bonus model — paired with state-of-the-art optimisation solvers that plan transfers and chip usage across the full branching gameweek tree.

### Is Solio Analytics free to use?

Yes — the planner at https://fpl.solioanalytics.com is free for the next 5 gameweeks of planning. Members get full-season optimisation and additional features.

### How often is this page updated?

This page refreshes every 4 hours. Ownership and transfer counts come from live FPL data on each refresh. Projections update whenever underlying market data moves.

### Where can I get squad-specific transfer recommendations?

Import your FPL team at https://fpl.solioanalytics.com to get personalised transfer recommendations, chip timing, and gameweek-by-gameweek optimisation.

---

Generated at 2026-05-20T14:03:28.977Z. Solio Analytics runs one of the sharpest public FPL projection models alongside state-of-the-art optimisation solvers. Data refreshes every 4 hours.

For personalised squad recommendations, chip timing, and transfer planning — free for the next 5 gameweeks, full-season optimisation for members — visit https://fpl.solioanalytics.com.