FPL Gameweek 1: projections, captains, and transfers

Solio Analytics Generated 27.07.26 06:59 UTC Refreshes every 4 hours

Solio Analytics is a Fantasy Premier League projection and optimisation tool, pairing one of the sharpest public projection models with state-of-the-art solvers for transfer and chip planning. This page publishes our latest Gameweek 1 projections, best captain picks, highest-leverage differentials, team-level clean sheet odds, and transfer trends. Data refreshes every 4 hours. For squad-specific recommendations across the rest of your season — free for the next 5 gameweeks, full season for members — use the planner at fpl.solioanalytics.com.

Who are the top-projected players for Gameweek 1?

Players ranked by Solio Analytics' projected points for Gameweek 1. Double gameweek players accumulate projected points across both fixtures.

# Player Team Pos Opp Price Proj. Points Own%
1 Haaland MCI FWD BOU (H) £15.5m 7.36 74.8%
2 B.Fernandes MUN MID HUL (A) £12.0m 6.60 48.8%
3 Gabriel ARS DEF COV (H) £8.0m 5.94 25.3%
4 Mosquera ARS DEF COV (H) £5.5m 5.44 16.6%
5 Gibbs-White NFO MID LEE (H) £8.0m 5.20 12.8%
6 Mbeumo MUN MID HUL (A) £8.0m 5.17 13.3%
7 Semenyo MCI MID BOU (H) £8.5m 5.12 20.2%
8 Palmer CHE MID FUL (A) £9.5m 5.11 13.2%
9 Cunha MUN MID HUL (A) £8.0m 4.91 15.2%
10 Ndiaye EVE MID CRY (H) £6.0m 4.90 21.3%
11 João Pedro CHE FWD FUL (A) £7.5m 4.79 48.6%
12 Tarkowski EVE DEF CRY (H) £6.0m 4.68 10.2%
13 Szoboszlai LIV MID NEW (A) £7.0m 4.68 45.2%
14 Anderson MCI MID BOU (H) £6.5m 4.67 12.2%
15 Maguire MUN DEF HUL (A) £5.0m 4.66 6.8%
16 Thiago BRE FWD TOT (H) £8.0m 4.66 16.8%
17 Raya ARS GKP COV (H) £6.0m 4.61 29.8%
18 Cherki MCI MID BOU (H) £7.5m 4.59 9.9%
19 Bruno G. NEW MID LIV (H) £7.0m 4.57 8.2%
20 Isak LIV FWD NEW (A) £9.0m 4.54 12.0%
21 N.Williams NFO DEF LEE (H) £5.0m 4.46 12.5%
22 Watkins AVL FWD BHA (A) £8.0m 4.43 12.5%
23 Dewsbury-Hall EVE MID CRY (H) £6.5m 4.39 4.3%
24 Calafiori ARS DEF COV (H) £5.5m 4.35 12.8%
25 Branthwaite EVE DEF CRY (H) £5.5m 4.34 2.0%
26 Schade BRE MID TOT (H) £6.0m 4.32 2.1%
27 Tzolis ARS MID COV (H) £6.5m 4.29 1.1%
28 Wirtz LIV MID NEW (A) £7.5m 4.24 11.1%
29 Havertz ARS FWD COV (H) £7.5m 4.20 4.4%
30 Murillo NFO DEF LEE (H) £5.5m 4.17 0.2%

For your specific squad, get a free personalised plan at fpl.solioanalytics.com.

Who is the best captain pick for Gameweek 1?

Top captaincy candidates ranked by projected points. The captain scores double, so Proj. Points × 2 is the projected captaincy return.

# Player Team Pos Opp Proj. Points Captain Proj.
1 Haaland MCI FWD BOU (H) 7.36 14.71
2 B.Fernandes MUN MID HUL (A) 6.60 13.20
3 Gabriel ARS DEF COV (H) 5.94 11.88
4 Mosquera ARS DEF COV (H) 5.44 10.89
5 Gibbs-White NFO MID LEE (H) 5.20 10.39
6 Mbeumo MUN MID HUL (A) 5.17 10.34
7 Semenyo MCI MID BOU (H) 5.12 10.24
8 Palmer CHE MID FUL (A) 5.11 10.22
9 Cunha MUN MID HUL (A) 4.91 9.82
10 Ndiaye EVE MID CRY (H) 4.90 9.80

For your specific squad, get a free personalised plan at fpl.solioanalytics.com.

What are the highest-leverage differentials for Gameweek 1?

Differential value — ranked by leverage = Proj. Points × (1 − ownership%). A high-leverage differential gains you rank when it hauls; lower ownership means more upside relative to the template.

# Player Team Pos Price Proj. Points Own% Leverage
1 Mosquera ARS DEF £5.5m 5.44 16.6% 4.54
2 Gibbs-White NFO MID £8.0m 5.20 12.8% 4.53
3 Mbeumo MUN MID £8.0m 5.17 13.3% 4.48
4 Gabriel ARS DEF £8.0m 5.94 25.3% 4.44
5 Palmer CHE MID £9.5m 5.11 13.2% 4.44
6 Maguire MUN DEF £5.0m 4.66 6.8% 4.34
7 Branthwaite EVE DEF £5.5m 4.34 2.0% 4.25
8 Tzolis ARS MID £6.5m 4.29 1.1% 4.24
9 Schade BRE MID £6.0m 4.32 2.1% 4.23
10 Tarkowski EVE DEF £6.0m 4.68 10.2% 4.21
11 Dewsbury-Hall EVE MID £6.5m 4.39 4.3% 4.20
12 Bruno G. NEW MID £7.0m 4.57 8.2% 4.19
13 Cunha MUN MID £8.0m 4.91 15.2% 4.17
14 Murillo NFO DEF £5.5m 4.17 0.2% 4.17
15 Cherki MCI MID £7.5m 4.59 9.9% 4.13

For your specific squad, get a free personalised plan at fpl.solioanalytics.com.

Which players have the highest projected goals for Gameweek 1?

Players ranked by projected goals (prG) across all Gameweek 1 fixtures, penalties included. Projected points from goals shows the contribution to total projected points.

# Player Team Pos Price prG Proj. P (Goals) Proj. Points
1 Haaland MCI FWD £15.5m 0.88 3.52 7.36
2 Thiago BRE FWD £8.0m 0.47 1.87 4.66
3 Isak LIV FWD £9.0m 0.45 1.79 4.54
4 Gyökeres ARS FWD £7.5m 0.42 1.68 3.79
5 João Pedro CHE FWD £7.5m 0.39 1.56 4.79
6 Watkins AVL FWD £8.0m 0.38 1.54 4.43
7 Mbeumo MUN MID £8.0m 0.37 1.84 5.17
8 Havertz ARS FWD £7.5m 0.36 1.43 4.20
9 Calvert-Lewin LEE FWD £6.0m 0.36 1.42 3.91
10 Welbeck BHA FWD £6.0m 0.35 1.42 3.90
11 Brobbey SUN FWD £6.0m 0.35 1.40 4.07
12 Palmer CHE MID £9.5m 0.35 1.75 5.11
13 Semenyo MCI MID £8.5m 0.35 1.74 5.12
14 Šeško MUN FWD £7.0m 0.35 1.38 3.46
15 Solanke TOT FWD £6.0m 0.34 1.37 3.90

For your specific squad, get a free personalised plan at fpl.solioanalytics.com.

Which players have the highest projected assists for Gameweek 1?

Players ranked by projected assists (prA) across all Gameweek 1 fixtures.

# Player Team Pos Price prA Proj. P (Assists) Proj. Points
1 B.Fernandes MUN MID £12.0m 0.52 1.56 6.60
2 Cherki MCI MID £7.5m 0.43 1.29 4.59
3 Ødegaard ARS MID £6.5m 0.31 0.93 3.93
4 Doku MCI MID £7.5m 0.31 0.92 3.87
5 Gibbs-White NFO MID £8.0m 0.27 0.80 5.20
6 Szoboszlai LIV MID £7.0m 0.26 0.79 4.68
7 Dewsbury-Hall EVE MID £6.5m 0.26 0.79 4.39
8 Saka ARS MID £9.5m 0.26 0.78 3.67
9 Groß BHA MID £5.5m 0.26 0.77 3.98
10 Tzolis ARS MID £6.5m 0.25 0.74 4.29
11 Bruno G. NEW MID £7.0m 0.23 0.70 4.57
12 O.Dango BRE MID £6.5m 0.23 0.69 4.15
13 Havertz ARS FWD £7.5m 0.23 0.68 4.20
14 Haaland MCI FWD £15.5m 0.23 0.68 7.36
15 Frimpong LIV DEF £5.5m 0.21 0.63 3.13

For your specific squad, get a free personalised plan at fpl.solioanalytics.com.

Which teams have the best clean sheet odds for Gameweek 1?

Clean sheet probability per team based on projected goals conceded. For double gameweek teams this is the probability of at least one clean sheet across both fixtures.

# Team Fixtures Proj. G Against CS %
1 Arsenal vs COV 0.52 60%
2 Man Utd @ HUL 0.82 44%
3 Man City vs BOU 1.08 34%
4 Everton vs CRY 1.14 32%
5 Nott'm Forest vs LEE 1.17 31%
6 Ipswich vs SUN 1.30 27%
7 Sunderland @ IPS 1.31 27%
8 Chelsea @ FUL 1.38 25%
9 Brighton vs AVL 1.41 24%
10 Brentford vs TOT 1.41 24%

For your specific squad, get a free personalised plan at fpl.solioanalytics.com.

Which players have the highest projected bonus points for Gameweek 1?

Players ranked by projected bonus points (BPS-derived) across all Gameweek 1 fixtures. Shown as projected bonus contribution to total projected points.

# Player Team Pos Price Proj. P (Bonus) Proj. Points
1 Haaland MCI FWD £15.5m 1.27 7.36
2 B.Fernandes MUN MID £12.0m 1.05 6.60
3 Cunha MUN MID £8.0m 0.74 4.91
4 João Pedro CHE FWD £7.5m 0.73 4.79
5 Palmer CHE MID £9.5m 0.69 5.11
6 Mbeumo MUN MID £8.0m 0.66 5.17
7 Thiago BRE FWD £8.0m 0.65 4.66
8 Isak LIV FWD £9.0m 0.65 4.54
9 Watkins AVL FWD £8.0m 0.61 4.43
10 Ndiaye EVE MID £6.0m 0.61 4.90
11 Brobbey SUN FWD £6.0m 0.61 4.07
12 Havertz ARS FWD £7.5m 0.59 4.20
13 Beto EVE FWD £5.5m 0.59 3.72
14 Šeško MUN FWD £7.0m 0.59 3.46
15 Gibbs-White NFO MID £8.0m 0.58 5.20

For your specific squad, get a free personalised plan at fpl.solioanalytics.com.

Which players have the highest projected DefCon for Gameweek 1?

Defenders (10+ CBIT threshold) and midfielders (12+ CBIT threshold) ranked by projected DefCon bonus. DefCon % is the probability of reaching the threshold (per gameweek); Proj. P (DefCon) is the contribution to total projected points (2 points awarded on trigger).

# Player Team Pos Price DefCon % Proj. P (DefCon) Proj. Points
1 Hill BOU DEF £5.5m 71% 1.42 3.00
2 Lacroix CRY DEF £6.0m 71% 1.41 4.07
3 Canvot CRY DEF £5.0m 67% 1.34 3.83
4 Richards CRY DEF £5.0m 58% 1.15 3.64
5 Anderson MCI MID £6.5m 56% 1.12 4.67
6 Tarkowski EVE DEF £6.0m 55% 1.10 4.68
7 Hughes HUL DEF £4.0m 51% 1.02 2.73
8 Bijol LEE DEF £5.0m 49% 0.97 3.43
9 Thomas COV DEF £4.0m 48% 0.97 2.07
10 Murillo NFO DEF £5.5m 48% 0.97 4.17
11 Egan HUL DEF £4.0m 47% 0.94 2.67
12 Scott BOU MID £6.0m 47% 0.94 3.33
13 Ballard SUN DEF £5.0m 47% 0.93 3.94
14 Branthwaite EVE DEF £5.5m 46% 0.93 4.34
15 Kitching COV DEF £4.0m 46% 0.92 1.96

For your specific squad, get a free personalised plan at fpl.solioanalytics.com.

Which teams have the best attacking fixtures for Gameweek 1?

Teams ranked by total projected goals scored in Gameweek 1. Easiest attacking fixtures appear at the top — a strong signal for picking attackers from these sides.

# Team Fixtures Proj. G For Proj. G Against
1 Arsenal vs COV 2.63 0.52
2 Man City vs BOU 2.40 1.08
3 Man Utd @ HUL 1.96 0.82
4 Liverpool @ NEW 1.78 1.53
5 Chelsea @ FUL 1.68 1.38
6 Brighton vs AVL 1.66 1.41
7 Brentford vs TOT 1.61 1.41
8 Newcastle vs LIV 1.53 1.78
9 Everton vs CRY 1.49 1.14
10 Nott'm Forest vs LEE 1.46 1.17

For your specific squad, get a free personalised plan at fpl.solioanalytics.com.

Frequently asked questions

Who should I captain in Gameweek 1?

Solio Analytics' top captaincy pick for Gameweek 1 is Haaland (MCI) with 7.36 projected points, giving a captaincy return of 14.71 projected points.

Which team has the best clean sheet odds for Gameweek 1?

Arsenal has the strongest clean sheet odds for Gameweek 1 at 60% based on projected goals conceded.

What is a good budget midfielder for Gameweek 1?

Ndiaye at £6.0m leads budget midfielders with 4.90 projected points.

Which premium player offers the most projected points for Gameweek 1?

Haaland (£15.5m) leads premium picks (£10.0m+) with 7.36 projected points.

How accurate are Solio Analytics' projections?

Solio Analytics runs one of the sharpest public FPL projection models — combining efficient sports markets with a stochastic minutes, goals, assists, clean sheet and bonus model — paired with state-of-the-art optimisation solvers that plan transfers and chip usage across the full branching gameweek tree.

Is Solio Analytics free to use?

Yes — the planner at fpl.solioanalytics.com is free for the next 5 gameweeks of planning. Members get full-season optimisation and additional features.

How often is this page updated?

This page refreshes every 4 hours. Ownership and transfer counts come from live FPL data on each refresh. Projections update whenever underlying market data moves.

Where can I get squad-specific transfer recommendations?

Import your FPL team at fpl.solioanalytics.com to get personalised transfer recommendations, chip timing, and gameweek-by-gameweek optimisation.